1. Editor's Note

【Opinion】Market Resilience Passes "Stress Test" as Privacy Sector Surges

This week (November 24–30), the crypto market executed a textbook "V-shaped" recovery. Following a bleak start where Bitcoin tested the lower bounds of the $80,000 region and market sentiment plunged into "Extreme Fear" (Index at 10), strong buying pressure at the $85,000 level firmly established a structural bottom. As the Thanksgiving holiday approached, the return of institutional flows combined with retail sentiment repair pushed Bitcoin back above the $91,000 threshold over the weekend, dragging the total crypto market cap back above $3 trillion. This was not just a price repair; it was a successful stress test for the bull market's continuation.

The spotlight this week wasn't solely on Bitcoin, but on the surprise breakout of the Privacy Sector and the official launch of the Monad Mainnet. Against a backdrop of tightening regulation, the surge in Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) suggests that "compliant privacy" is emerging as a new narrative for institutional hedging. Meanwhile, Monad, the highly anticipated high-performance L1 of this cycle, launched its mainnet. Despite controversies over "VC control," it has undeniably injected new vitality into the infrastructure sector.

On the macro front, US Core PCE data for October (2.9%) met expectations but remained sticky. While it didn't offer a surprise for rate cut hopes, it didn't deliver a shock either. Market focus is shifting from pure liquidity plays to value discovery in specific sectors like Privacy, RWAs, and Payments. Entering December, with year-end institutional rebalancing and "Santa Rally" expectations, we advise investors to remain cautiously optimistic, keeping a close eye on local liquidity shocks from upcoming token unlocks.

2. Market Overview

After a severe washout early in the week, major assets recorded significant rebounds in the second half. Privacy coins and legacy L1s outperformed the broader market, while Ethereum continued to trade weakly sideways.

Data Sources: CoinGecko, CoinGlass, TradingView (As of Nov 30, 23:59 UTC+8)

3. Top Stories

1. Monad Mainnet Goes Live (Nov 24): The highly anticipated parallel EVM blockchain Monad launched its mainnet on Monday. Despite congestion during airdrop claims and debates over "VC dominance," early on-chain volume indicates strong initial adoption.
2. Zcash Surge Sparks Privacy Renaissance: Driven by Grayscale's filing for a Privacy ETF and public company Reliance Global Group converting its treasury entirely to Zcash, ZEC surged over 30% this week. The market is repricing the value of "compliant privacy" for enterprise payments.
3. Upbit Suffers $37M Hack (Nov 27): South Korea's largest exchange, Upbit, experienced a security breach resulting in the theft of ~$37 million in assets (primarily Aptos & Solana tokens). Preliminary investigations point to the DPRK's Lazarus Group, leading to a temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals.
4. US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive: Ending a 5-day streak of net outflows, ETFs led by BlackRock's IBIT saw capital return on Wednesday (Nov 26) with over $100M in single-day net inflows. Cumulative net inflows have now surpassed the $30 billion milestone.
5. MicroStrategy's Relentless Accumulation: Michael Saylor announced the purchase of an additional 8,000+ BTC, declaring "Orange is the color of November." Although MSTR stock dipped ~16% due to Bitcoin's correction, the company's aggressive leveraged accumulation strategy remains unchanged.
6. FCA Sues HTX (formerly Huobi): The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) filed a lawsuit against Justin Sun-linked exchange HTX for unauthorized promotion of crypto assets to UK consumers, signaling a tougher regulatory stance in the UK.
7. Kalshi Secures $1B Funding: Prediction market platform Kalshi confirmed a massive $1 billion funding round, reaching an $11 billion valuation. This marks Prediction Markets as one of the most capital-rich sectors in Web3.
8. Franklin Templeton Launches XRP ETF (Nov 24): Asset management giant Franklin Templeton officially launched its XRP ETF (Ticker: XRPZ), further advancing the narrative of XRP's legitimacy, though price reaction was relatively muted.
9. Tether Minting Shifts from Ethereum: Data shows Tether's minting activity significantly increased on TON and Celo chains this week while slowing on Ethereum mainnet, highlighting a trend of stablecoins migrating to high-performance, low-fee chains.
10. Binance Pushes USDC Adoption: To prepare for the full implementation of the EU's MiCA regulation, Binance has ramped up support for the compliant stablecoin USDC, resulting in a significant increase in USDC trading pair liquidity this week.

4. Sector Deep Dive

1. Privacy Coins

• Weekly Performance: ZEC (+33%), DASH (+14%), XMR (+5%)
• Driver: A narrative shift from "Dark Web Tools" to "Enterprise Privacy." Corporations seek on-chain financial privacy without sacrificing auditability, a need Zcash's Viewing Keys address perfectly.
• Risk: Regulatory headwinds remain the sword of Damocles, with delisting risks from exchanges not fully eliminated.

2. Prediction Markets

• Weekly Performance: Volatile token performance, but scorching primary market funding.
• Analysis: Kalshi's massive raise validates capital bets on the future of "Information Markets." Post-US election, the sector is diversifying into sports and macroeconomic data forecasting.

3. Parallel EVM

• Weekly Performance: MON (New), SEI (+8%)
• Status: Monad's launch officially kicks off the Parallel EVM wars. Capital is currently rotating from traditional Solana/Ethereum plays into this new architecture. Watch Monad's early TVL retention closely.

5. On-Chain Highlights

• BTC Active Addresses: Daily active addresses retraced to ~400k this week, down ~15% from early November highs, suggesting retail trading enthusiasm cooled during the dip, with market activity currently dominated by institutional block orders.
• Exchange Reserves: Despite the price correction, Bitcoin exchange balances did not significantly increase, indicating that sell pressure was driven primarily by derivatives markets rather than spot liquidation.
• Stablecoin Flows: USDC market cap saw moderate growth this week, with significant inflows into Coinbase, typically interpreted as US institutional capital positioning for buys.
• Ethereum Gas Fees: Remained persistently low (<10 gwei). L2s like Base continue to siphon activity from the mainnet, leading to a sharp drop in ETH burn rates and re-introducing inflationary pressure.

6. Funding & Project Updates

Key Token Unlocks (Dec 2-8):

• Sui (SUI): Dec 1 unlock of ~64M tokens ($220M), ~2.26% of supply.
• Aptos (APT): Large unlock alert for the coming week.
• Jito (JTO): Dec 7 unlock of ~$130M tokens, watch for sell pressure.

7. Regulation & Macro

• USA: October Core PCE at 2.9% YoY met expectations. Market pricing for a December rate cut holds steady at ~66%. The macro environment remains neutral-to-bullish for risk assets. Texas announcing Bitcoin as a state strategic reserve sets a massive precedent.
• UK: The FCA's lawsuit against HTX demonstrates a zero-tolerance approach to unauthorized crypto marketing, posing legal risks for any offshore exchange targeting UK users.
• Asia: South Korean police confirmed the 2019 Upbit hack was DPRK-linked. The new Upbit hack this week has reignited top-level concerns regarding exchange security and regulation in the region.

8. Chart of the Week

1. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap: 
    

   

   Shows a vacuum of liquidity in the $84k-$85k zone following recent long liquidations, while heavy short liquidation liquidity has built up between $93k-$95k, suggesting price action may gravitate upwards to "hunt" this liquidity. (Source: CoinGlass)

2. Total Stablecoin Market Cap: 

   

   The curve has ticked upwards again this week, with both USDT and USDC showing positive growth. This is the strongest evidence that OTC capital did not flee but continued to enter during the correction.

9. What to Watch Next Week

1. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec 6): The November jobs report next Friday will be the final gavel for the Fed's December rate decision. Weak data would be bullish for crypto.
2. Monad Ecosystem Explosion: Watch for the "APY Wars" among the first DEXs and lending protocols launching on Monad, which could trigger a short-term liquidity siphon effect.
3. Bitcoin Monthly Close: The November monthly candle is about to close. Stabilizing above $90,000 would confirm one of the strongest Novembers in history, setting a technical foundation for a run at $100,000 in December.
4. FTX Repayments: Rumors of imminent FTX repayments are circulating. Monitor creditor flows, as this could represent a significant injection of fiat back into the market.

10. Closing & CTA

This week, the market proved the bull run is far from over through its strong absorption of selling pressure. The resurgence of the privacy sector reminds us to stay alert to non-consensus opportunities, while the Upbit hack serves as a stark reminder of asset security. As we step into December, protecting your chips and following the liquidity remains the best strategy.

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Disclaimer:

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Invest responsibly. AscendEX assumes no liability for the content of this report.